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" Economic fitness: How equity market returns reflect the realization of economic growth potential," " Do Fiscal Rules Cause Better Fiscal Balances? A New Instrumental Variable Strategy," Francesca Caselli & Julien Reynaud, 2019.Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. A twist on the secular stagnation hypothesis," " Short-run effects of lower productivity growth. Blanchard, Olivier & Lorenzoni, Guido & L’Huillier, Jean-Paul, 2017." Growth Expectations, Undue Optimism, and Short-Run Fluctuations," Zeno Enders & Michael Kleemann & Gernot Müller, 2013.Enders, Zeno & Kleemann, Michael & Müller, Gernot J., 2017.Michael Kleemann & Gernot Mueller & Zeno Enders, 2015.Müller, Gernot & Enders, Zeno & Kleemann, Michael, 2016.VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic OrderĨ0009, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association. " Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations," ![]() Enders, Zeno & Kleemann, Michael & Müller, Gernot, 2013.Our findings illustrate the potency of unjustified optimism and underline the importance of basing economic forecasts upon realistic medium-term prospects. The mechanism that transforms over-optimism into a later recession seems to run through higher debt accumulation, both public and private. As a necessary first step, we document that IMF Mission Chiefs tend to systematically differ in their individual degrees of forecast-optimism or caution. To isolate the causal effect of over-optimism we take an instrumental variables approach, where we exploit variation provided by the allocation of IMF Mission Chiefs across countries. To examine this question, we look at the medium-run effects of instances of over-optimism or caution in IMF forecasts. Our findings illustrate the potency of unjustified optimism and underline the importance of basing economic forecasts upon realistic medium-term prospects.Is over-optimism about a country's future growth perspective good for an economy, or does over-optimism also come with costs? In this paper we provide evidence that recessions, fiscal problems, as well as Balance of Payment-difficulties are more likely to arise in countries where past growth expectations have been overly optimistic. Is over-optimism about a country's future growth perspective good for an economy, or does over-optimism also come with costs? In this paper we provide evidence that recessions, fiscal problems, as well as Balance of Payment-difficulties are more likely to arise in countries where past growth expectations have been overly optimistic. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 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It transferred to the Apollo Theatre on 1 January 1939, and to the Savoy Theatre on. ![]() Gas Light premiered on 5 December 1938 at the Richmond Theatre in Richmond, London. Carroll in the Broadway production of Angel Street London The play closes with Jack being led away by the police. At the last minute she reminds him that, having gone insane, she is not accountable for her actions. Rough convinces Bella to assist him in exposing Jack as the murderer, which she does, but not before she takes revenge on Jack by pretending to help him escape. His footsteps in the supposedly empty apartment persuade Bella that she is "hearing things". Jack goes to the flat each night to search for the jewels, and lighting the apartment's gas lights causes the lights to dim in the rest of the building. Rough explains that the apartment above was once occupied by one Alice Barlow, a wealthy woman who was murdered for her jewels. The appearance of a police detective called Rough leads Bella to realise that Jack is responsible for her torment. It becomes clear that Jack is intent on convincing Bella that she is going insane, even to the point of assuring her she is imagining that the gas light in the house is dimming. What most perturbs Bella is Jack's unexplained disappearances from the house: he will not tell her where he is going, and this increases her anxiety. It is late afternoon, a time that Hamilton notes as the time "before the feeble dawn of gaslight and tea."īella is clearly on edge, and the stern reproaches of her overbearing husband (who flirts with the servants in front of his wife) make matters worse. The play is set in fog-bound London in 1880, at the upper middle class home of Jack Manningham and his wife Bella. In 2019, the film was selected for preservation in the United States National Film Registry by the Library of Congress as being "culturally, historically, or aesthetically significant". The 1944 American version received seven nominations at the 17th Academy Awards, including Best Picture, and won two, Best Actress (for Ingrid Bergman) and Best Production Design. Both films are considered classics in their respective countries of origin, and are generally equally critically acclaimed. The play was adapted to the big screen as two films, both entitled Gaslight-a 1940 British film, and a 1944 American film directed by George Cukor, also known as The Murder in Thornton Square in the UK. Angel Street was a hit in its Broadway premiere, and it remains one of the longest-running non-musicals in Broadway history, with 1,295 total performances. Premiering at the Richmond Theatre in London on 5 December 1938 before transferring to the Apollo Theatre in the West End on 1 January, the play closed after six months and 141 performances, but it has endured through an impressive list of incarnations most notably Five Chelsea Lane (1941 American play – renamed for Los Angeles production), Angel Street (1941 American play – renamed again when Los Angeles production transferred to Broadway), and Gaslight (1958 Australian television play). Two years later, Hamilton's mother took her own life. ![]() Six years prior to the play Hamilton was hit by a drunk driver and dragged through the streets of London, leaving him with a limp, a paralysed arm, and a disfigured face. Gas Light was written during a dark period in Hamilton's life. ![]() Hamilton's play is a dark tale of a marriage based on deceit and trickery, and a husband committed to driving his wife insane in order to steal from her. 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